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Macroeconomic uncertainties, prudent debt targets and fiscal rules

Fall, Falilou; Fournier, Jean-Marc - 2015

The sharp rise in debt experienced by most OECD countries raises questions about the prudent debt level countries should target. It also raises questions about the fiscal frameworks needed to reach them and to accommodate cyclical fluctuations along the path towards a prudent debt target. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399529

The effects of the tax mix on inequality and growth

Akgun, Oguzhan; Cournède, Boris; Fournier, Jean-Marc - 2017

the experience of 34 OECD countries over 1980-2014 to assess the effects of changes in the tax structure on the long … while keeping government size constant typically lift long-term output per capita when they involve cuts in the labour tax …-income effects of revenue-neutral reductions in labour tax wedges are broadly in line with intuition: the relative position of those …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011823664

Limits to government debt sustainability

Fournier, Jean-Marc; Fall, Falilou - 2015

The recent euro area sovereign debt crisis has shown the importance of market reactions for the sustainability of debt. The objective of this paper is to calculate endogenous government debt limits given the markets assessment of the probability to default. The estimated primary balance reaction...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011399483

The deterioration of the public spending mix during the global financial crisis : insights from new indicators

Bloch, Debra; Fournier, Jean-Marc - 2018

New indicators measuring the effects of public spending on inclusive growth have been constructed using recent empirical work by Fournier and Johansson (2016) and a recent public finance dataset (Bloch et al., 2016). A first set of indicators combines information on the mix of public spending....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011914165

Limits to government debt sustainability in middleincome countries

Fournier, Jean-Marc; Bétin, Manuel - 2018

This paper investigates the effect of structural characteristics on debt limits of middle income countries. Two equations relate the probability of default to the interest rate. First, the probability of default is estimated with a logit model. Second, the assumption of non-arbitrage opportunity...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011914290

Sovereign defaults : evidence on the importance of government effectiveness

Fournier, Jean-Marc; Bétin, Manuel - 2018

This paper provides robust empirical evidence that government effectiveness is a key determinant of sovereign defaults. Government effectiveness is measured by a broad-based perception index of the Worldwide Governance Indicators database (WGI) disseminated by the World Bank. Public debt and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011914292

Trends in public finance : insights from a new detailed dataset

Bloch, Debra; Fournier, Jean-Marc; Gonçalves, Duarte; … - 2016

To investigate how public finances could best be designed to promote long-run growth and address inequality, it is essential to have comprehensive, cross-country comparable data on government spending and revenues, along with structural and policy indicators. By identifying key variables of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011578193

Can an increase in public investment sustainably lift economic growth?

Mourougane, Annabelle; Botev, Jarmila; Fournier, Jean-Marc - 2016

This paper seeks to identify the conditions under which raising public investment can sustainably lift growth without deteriorating public finances. To do so, it relies on a range of simulations using three different macro-structural models. According to the simulations, OECD governments could...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011578210