The present paper develops Adaptive Trees, a new machine learning approach specifically designed for economic forecasting. Economic forecasting is made difficult by economic complexity, which implies non-linearities (multiple interactions and discontinuities) and unknown structural changes (the...

India is becoming a key player in the global economy. It performs well in exporting information and technology services, pharmaceuticals and petroleum products. India’s large diaspora is well integrated abroad, helping to develop new export markets and facilitate the transfer of technology and...

This paper analyses for 34 OECD countries the extent to which the calculation of aggregate multi-factor productivity (MFP) is sensitive to alternative parameterisations. The starting point is the definition of MFP used in previous work in the OECD’s Economics Department (e.g. Johansson et al....

The determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) are explored with gravity models, using a Poisson estimator and a linear estimator, both with fixed effects. The heterogeneity of product market regulations has a large and robust impact on cross-border investment: a reduction of regulatory...

With sound framework conditions, fine universities, good infrastructure and policies friendly towards foreign direct investment, Ireland scores high in international innovation scoreboards. Overall, policies to boost innovation and entrepreneurship are on the right track, but investment in...

In a financially interconnected world, individual countries’ policy choices affect other economies and can become a source of international shocks. Leveraging on a new quarterly dataset of capital control adjustments, we find renewed evidence that the introduction of capital controls in one...

This paper assesses the redistribution of foreign direct investments (FDI) and tax revenues among countries due to multinationals’ response to international differences in corporate tax systems. The paper briefly reviews the literature on the tax sensitivity of FDI and uses a consensus...

Business has often been arguing against the introduction of a carbon tax because it would induce a pollution haven effect – reducing the competitiveness of domestic production and shifting both production and emissions to countries where fossil fuels are cheaper. In this paper, we shed light...

New Zealand ranks highly on most indicators of well-being, but incomes are below the OECD average due to low labour productivity. Low labour productivity is only partly explained by the industry composition of the NZ economy and is primarily a consequence of sustained low multi-factor...

Starting from a low level in early 2000s, Turkey’s total capital stock has since expanded rapidly, but the composition and quality of investment raises questions. This study focuses on business investment, as the main driver of physical and knowledge-based capital formation and, hence, of...