This paper examines recent evidence on the role that gasoline margins and volatility play in the asymmetric response of gasoline prices to changes in oil prices at different stages of distribution process. In a regression model with margins, we find that margins are statistically significant in...

A simple univariate model is employed to generate an unbiased and (weakly) efficient forecast of the crude oil spot price. In terms of predictive information, however, this univariate forecast is inferior to the futures price for one-month-ahead contracts. This observation may suggest that the...

In this study, we ask whether US consumers' inflation expectations provide useful information for accurately predicting the direction of change in energy prices. As such, we set up a forecasting model to generate the one-, two- and three-quarter-ahead random walk forecasts of crude oil, gasoline...