This paper presents some simple methods to estimate the probability that realized inflation will breach a given inflation target range over a specified period, based on the Bank of England?s RPIX inflation forecasting model and the Monetary Policy Committee?s forecasts of the parameters on which...

This paper evaluates the inflation density forecasts published by the Swedish central bank, the Sveriges Riksbank. Realized inflation outcomes are mapped to their forecasted percentiles, which are then transformed to be standard normal under the null that the forecasting model is good. Results...

This paper presents a new approach to the evaluation of FOMC macroeconomic forecasts. Its distinctive feature is the interpretation, under reasonable conditions, of the minimum and maximum forecasts reported in FOMC meetings as indicative of probability density forecasts for these variables....