How successful have economists and other business forecasters been in predicting recessions? This question is of considerable practical value since the level of economic activity greatly influences budgets and other plans of businesses. The purpose of this paper is to examine forecasts of...

Statistical forecasting is based on the assumption of constancy, or structural ability in the data. This paper argues that such an assumption might not always be realistic in real life forecasting situations. Unfortunately, however, statisticians and forecasters tend to forget, or at least not...