This paper examines the provisions of the recently completed Uruguay Round and evaluates the qualitative and quantitative effects of the Round on major countries and regions of the world. The implications of the Uruguay Round are measured using the G-cubed multicountry model. This model captures...

This article identifies six fundamental indicators that might predict a financial crisis similar to the one that affected the emerging markets of Southeast Asia. Our empirical analysis shows that the 1997 Asian crisis could have been predicted. Probit estimation reveals that a small number of...

The paper deals with a broad range of topics under the rubric of the international monetary system: exchange rate agreements, International Monetary Fund structure, history and functioning of the European Monetary Union, monetary and fiscal policies adopted in recent years by different...

In the last decade serious crises have affected financial markets. Some proposals to avoid international financial crises have been made, but more useful could be measures to strengthen the functioning of the present international monetary system. Another way could be a much greater involvement...

Data revisions routinely introduced by the World Bank can lead to significant revisions in empirical results. We show this by re-estimating our aggregate indicator for predicting the 1997 Asian crisis utilizing the 1999 and 2004 updates of the 1996 World Bank data and comparing these results to...

This paper develops a theoretical model which postulates that while the drop in oil prices during the 1980s has benefitted O.E.C.D. countries in a way not unlike a favorable productivity shock, the concomitant shift in oil market share from Arab or cartel core petroleum exporting countries to...

This paper examines the immediate and the fundamental causes of the crsis that hit the European Monetary System in September 1992 and August 1993 and the obstacles that European countries face in trying to achieve their ultimate goal of full monetary union, including a single currency and a...