The authors delineate conditions which favor multistep, or dynamic, estimation for multistep forecasting. An analytical example shows how dynamic estimation may accommodate incorrectly specified models as the forecast lead alters, improving forecast performance for some misspecifications....

This article presents a formal explanation of the forecast combination puzzle, that simple combinations of point forecasts are repeatedly found to outperform sophisticated weighted combinations in empirical applications. The explanation lies in the effect of finite-sample error in estimating the...

We exploit a unique data-set matching individual-level data for the 1993 cohort of UK university leavers to DfEE school-level data. We analyze the determinants of undergraduate degree performance using an ordered probit regression model, and find that degree performance is influenced positively...

This paper uses the multivariate cointegration technique of Johansen to construct a manufacturing imports equation for the UK over the period from 1970 to the end of 1991. Imports are modeled in share form with a unit long-run elasticity on demand. The long-run equations are similar to those...