This paper examines the empirical relation between nominal exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals for five major OECD countries between 1974 and 1987. Five theoretical models of exchange rate determination are considered. Potential non-linearities are examined using a variety of...

Expected rates of devaluation for the French franc/Deutsche mark exchange rate during the EMS are estimated using the 'drift adjustment' method. Exchange rates within the band display strong mean reversion. The adjustment term, the expected rate of depreciation within the band, is often of the...

This paper looks for dynamic patterns in international trade flows using comprehensive multilateral data for six countries, disaggregated to the four-digit SITC level. The purpose of the paper is to compare predictions of persistent trade balances generated by theories of international trade,...