We construct a framework for measuring economic activity at high frequency, potentially in real time. We use a variety of stock and flow data observed at mixed frequencies (including very high frequencies), and we use a dynamic factor model that permits exact filtering. We illustrate the...

Recent theoretical work has revealed a direct connection between asset return volatility forecastability and asset return sign forecastability. This suggests that the pervasive volatility forecastability in equity returns could, via induced sign forecastability, be used to produce...

This paper provides an empirical evaluation of countries’ performance in fighting COVID-19, utilizing a performance index (which we call the Disaster Index) based on four health and economic indicators: deaths per population size, deaths per confirmed cases, and quarterly real GDP and monthly...

The new coronavirus COVID-19 started in Wuhan, China in November or December of 2019 and spread to the rest of the world in 2020 at varying speed. Some countries responded relatively well, and others responded relatively poorly. Therefore, it is necessary to measure the performance to learn from...

Lawrence R. Klein (September 14, 1920 – October 20, 2013), Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences in 1980, was one of the leading figures in macro-econometric modeling. Although his contributions to forecasting using simultaneous equations macro models were very well known, his contributions to...

This paper studies the comparative predictive accuracy of forecasting methods using mixed-frequency data, as applied to nowcasting Philippine inflation, real GDP growth, and other related macroeconomic variables. It focuses on variations of mixed-frequency dynamic latent factor models (DFM for...