We study an individual who faces a dynamic decision problem in which the process of information arrival is unobserved by the analyst. We derive two utility representations of preferences over menus of acts that capture the individual's uncertainty about his future beliefs. The most general...

We develop a model of social learning from complementary information: Short-lived agents sequentially choose from a large set of flexibly correlated information sources for prediction of an unknown state, and information is passed down across periods. Will the community collectively acquire the...

We introduce a new class of preferences — which we call additive-belief-based (ABB) —that captures a general and yet tractable approach to belief-based utility, and that encompasses many popular models in the behavioral literature. We show that the general class of ABB preferences and two...

We develop a microeconomic model of endogenous growth where clean and dirty technologies complete in production and innovation - in the sense that research can be directed to either clean or dirty technologies. If dirty technologies are more advanced to start with, the potential transition to...

We show that for a disappointment-averse decision maker, splitting a lottery into several stages reduces its value. To do this, we extend Gul's (1991) model of disappointment aversion into a dynamic setting while keeping its basic characteristics intact. The result depends solely on the sign of...

Savage (1954) provided a set of axioms on preferences over acts that were equivalent to the existence of an expected utility representation. We show that in addition to this representation, there is a continuum of other "expected utility" representations in which for any act, the probability...

This paper examines the where, when and why of first round entrepreneurial investment activity in the United States from the first quarter of 1995 until the second quarter of 2010. The paper analyzes these venture capital investments taking into consideration the role of macroeconomic variables,...

Savage (1954) provided axioms on preferences over acts that were equivalent to the existence of an expected utility representation. We show that there is a continuum of other expected utility" representations in which for any act, the probability distribution over states depends on the...

Consider an agent who is unsure of the state of the world and faces computational bounds on mental processing. The agent receives a sequence of signals imperfectly correlated with the true state that he will use to take a single decision. The agent is assumed to have a finite number of "states...

Machina (2009, 2012) lists a number of situations where standard models of ambiguity aversion are unable to capture plausible features of ambiguity attitudes. Most of these problems arise in choice over prospects involving three or more outcomes. We show that the recursive non-expected utility...