This paper analyzes how the different types of inflation uncertainty affect a set of interest rate spreads for the UK. Three types of inflation uncertainty—structural uncertainty, impulse uncertainty, and steady-state inflation uncertainty—are defined and derived by using a time-varying...

After two types of inflation uncertainty are derived within a time-varying parameter model with GARCH specification, the relationship between inflation uncertainty and interest rates for safe assets is investigated. The results support the existence of a “flight to quality” effect.

This paper utilizes an early warning system in order to measure the likelihood of a financial crisis in an emerging market economy. We introduce a methodology, where we can both obtain a likelihood series and analyze the time-varying effects of several macroeconomic variables on this likelihood....