High-frequency returns of the DAX German blue chip stock index are used to test geometric Brownian motion, the standard model for financial time series. Even on a 15-s time scale, the linear correlations of DAX returns have a zero-time delta function which carries 90% of the weight, while the...

A system for Operational Risk management based on the computational paradigm of Bayesian Networks is presented. The algorithm allows the construction of a Bayesian Network targeted for each bank and takes into account in a simple and realistic way the correlations among different processes of...

A novel dynamical model for the study of operational risk in banks and suitable for the calculation of the Value at Risk (VaR) is proposed. The equation of motion takes into account the interactions among different bank’s processes, the spontaneous generation of losses via a noise term and the...

We give a stochastic microscopic modelling of stock markets driven by continuous double auction. If we take into account the mimetic behavior of traders, when they place limit order, our virtual market shows the power-law tail of the distribution of returns with the exponent outside the Levy...

This work is devoted to the study of the Asian crisis of 1997, and its consequences on emerging markets. We have done so by means of a phase transition model. We have analyzed the crashes on leading indices of Hong Kong (HSI), Turkey (XU100), Mexico (MMX), Brazil (BOVESPA) and Argentina...

This article shows turbulent behavior in a series of financial indexes assuming that they follow a cascade process of the same type as do turbulent fluids. With such a model, the energy flux between the eddies that emerge in the fluid is analogous to the financial information flux over the...

We show, on the basis of our recently introduced stochastic model, that triangular arbitrage makes the auto-correlation function of foreign exchange rates negative in a short time scale.

The price time series of the Italian government bonds (BTP) futures is studied by means of scaling concepts originally developed for random walks in statistical physics. The series of overnight price differences is mapped onto a one-dimensional random walk: the bond walk. The analysis of the...

A new approach to the understanding of complex behavior of financial markets index using tools from thermodynamics and statistical physics is developed. Physical complexity, a quantity rooted in the Kolmogorov–Chaitin theory is applied to binary sequences built up from real time series of...

We describe a bottom–up framework, based on the identification of appropriate order parameters and determination of phase diagrams, for understanding progressively refined agent-based models and simulations of financial markets. We illustrate this framework by starting with a deterministic toy...