By scientific standards, the accuracy of short-term economic forecasts has been poor, and shows no sign of improving over time. We form a delay matrix of time-series data on the overall rate of growth of the economy, with lags spanning the period over which any regularity of behaviour is...

We provide empirical evidence that in a social network which evolves over time, it is possible to extract deep information about the system from limited observations. In this paper, we consider a simple piece of readily available evidence on access to financial services by individuals in the UK....

Qualitative evidence suggests that heresy within the medieval Church had many of the characteristics of a scale-free network. From the perspective of the Church, heresy can be seen as an infectious disease. The disease persisted for long periods of time, breaking out again even when the Church...

The Internet is known to have had a powerful impact on on-line retailer strategies in markets characterised by long-tail distribution of sales [C. Anderson, Long Tail: Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More, Hyperion, New York, 2006]. Such retailers can exploit the long tail of the...

Self-similar models are largely used to describe the extinction rate of biological species. In this paper we analyse the extinction rate of firms in eight OECD countries. Firms are classified by industrial sectors and sizes. We find that while a power-law distribution with exponent close to 2...

Power law distributions of macroscopic observables are ubiquitous in both the natural and social sciences. They are indicative of correlated, cooperative phenomena between groups of interacting agents at the microscopic level. In this paper, we argue that when one is considering aggregate...

The standard socio-economic model (SSSM) postulates very considerable cognitive powers on the part of its agents. They are able to gather all relevant information in any given situation, and to take the optimal decision on the basis of it, given their tastes and preferences. This behavioural...

We consider in this paper the distribution of the cumulative size of recessions in 17 capitalist countries over the period 1871–1994, using data on annual percentage changes in real GDP. A recession is defined as a year in which GDP growth is negative, and the cumulative change is the change...

The degree of convergence of the business cycles of the economies of the European Union (EU) is a key policy issue. In particular, a substantial degree of convergence is needed if the European Central Bank is to be capable of setting a monetary policy which is appropriate to the stage of the...

Econophysics has already made a number of important empirical contributions to our understanding of the social and economic world. These fall mainly into the areas of finance and industrial economics, where in each case there is a large amount of reasonably well-defined data.