We show that the Chinese stock markets are quite different and decoupled from Western markets (which include Tokyo). We document a well-developed log-periodic power-law antibubble in China's stock market, which started in August 2001. We argue that the current stock market antibubble is...

Following a long tradition of physicists who have noticed that the Ising model provides a general background to build realistic models of social interactions, we study a model of financial price dynamics resulting from the collective aggregate decisions of agents. This model incorporates...

Fractals and multifractals and their associated scaling laws provide a quantification of the complexity of a variety of scale invariant complex systems. Here, we focus on lattice multifractals which exhibit complex exponents associated with observable log-periodicity. We perform detailed...

The Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles with finite-time singular crash hazard rates has been developed to describe the dynamics of financial bubbles and crashes. It has been applied successfully to a large variety of financial bubbles in many different...

Using a methodology developed in previous papers, we analyze the quarterly average sale prices of new houses sold in the USA as a whole, in the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West of the USA, in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia of the USA, to determine whether they have grown...

We present a general methodology to incorporate fundamental economic factors to the theory of herding developed in our group to describe bubbles and antibubbles. We start from the strong form of rational expectation and derive the general method to incorporate factors in addition to the...

Previous analyses of a large ensemble of stock markets have demonstrated that a log-periodic power law (LPPL) behavior of the prices constitutes a qualifying signature of speculative bubbles that often land with a crash. We detect such a LPPL signature in the foreign capital inflow during the...

We tested 45 indices and common stocks in the South African stock market for the possible existence of a bubble over the period from January 2003 to May 2006. A bubble is defined by a faster-than-exponential acceleration with significant log-periodic oscillations. These two traits are analyzed...

We present an analysis of oil prices in USD and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-up was amplified by speculative behavior of the type found during a bubble-like expansion. We also...

We find that the seed of the 2002/03 crisis of the Dutch supermarket giant AHOLD was planted in 1996. We have adapted Weidlich's theory of opinion formation to describe the formation of buy or sell decisions among investors, based on a competition between the mechanisms of herding and of...