The latest estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) in this semiannual series indicate that the currencies of the United States, the euro area, China, and Japan are approximately at their FEER levels and need no adjustment to reduce excessive external imbalances. The...

For several years China has run current account surpluses that have been widely seen as the most serious source of global imbalances on the surplus side. Its exchange rate intervention limited appreciation of the currency and led to a buildup of external reserves to more than $3 trillion....

On July 21, 2011, the heads of government of the euro area announced a new plan to address the Greek debt crisis. This policy brief presents a simulation exercise that examines whether the new arrangements are likely to provide a sustainable solution. The analysis focuses on four key measures:...

This policy brief updates Cline and Williamson's estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) to April 2011. Most currencies appear to have been reasonably close to their FEERs in April 2011. The most important exceptions are China, on the weak side, and the United States, on the...

The currency markets have been extremely disturbed for the last three months. The period witnessed a major strengthening of the US dollar in September, then the European currency crisis, a recovery of the euro when the markets believed that the crisis was being controlled, and then a rebound of...

Cline and Williamson calculate a new set of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) based on the new round of International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections in the spring 2012 World Economic Outlook. These show that on a trade-weighted basis the US dollar is now overvalued by 3–4...

The United States faces a “fiscal cliff” at the end of calendar year 2012, when the two major tax cuts from the Bush era and some other tax provisions will expire and in the absence of action scheduled reductions in spending will begin. The subsequent increase in taxes and reduction in...

In this semiannual update of their estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs), William R. Cline and John Williamson again find that the overvaluation of the dollar and undervaluation of the Chinese renminbi have become much more modest than in previous years, as their current...

Severe recession in 2010–12 drove the need for sovereign debt reduction in Greece, despite a massive cut in government spending. The 2012 restructuring cut privately-held debt by about 50 percent, but much debt was exempt (IMF, euro area governments, ECB), and new borrowing was needed to...

In this semiannual update, William R. Cline presents new estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs). Once again it is found that the key cases of the United States and China involve only modest over- and undervaluation, respectively. However, the Japanese yen is found to have...