This paper revisits the extent of seasonality in African livelihoods, which has disappeared from Africa's development debate. Through econometric analysis of monthly food price series across 100 locations in three countries during 2000-12, it is shown that seasonal movements in maize wholesale...

The purpose of this paper is to examine the implications of the rational expectations hypothesis for the econometric modeling of primary commodity markets. Muth's Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) revolutionized economic theory and modeling on price formation in a simple agricultural...

International commodity agreements (ICAs) fit uneasily in a world in which markets are becoming globalized and increasingly competitive. Development policy - both as preached by international agencies and as practiced by typically democratically elected and nonsocialist governments in the major...

Superficially, commodity-indexed bonds resemble a combination of a debt and a contract in futures. They are particularly useful in a country dependent on a single commodity for which prices are volatile. These financial instruments involve a tradeoff between gains in risk-sharing and a...

Despite recently announced delays, Basel II - the new standard for bank capital - is due to be completed this year for implementation in the 13 Basel Committee member countries by the end of 2006. Should the other 170 plus member countries of the World Bank also adopt Basel II? Basel II was not...

The authors propose an integrated approach to minimum bank capital, and loan loss reserves regulation. They break new ground in two main areas. First, the authors provide an explicit measurement of the credit loss distribution for a sample of emerging countries, providing a benchmark for...

The authors analyze how data in public credit registries can be used both to strengthen bank supervision and to improve the quality of credit analysis by financial institutions. Empirical tests using public credit registry (PCR) data were performed in collaboration with the central banks in...

The Basel 1988 Capital Accord is arguably the most successful of all recent financial"standards."Although it was designed for internationally active banks in G10 countries, more than 100 countries claim to adhere to it, and many apply the Accord to all banks. Significant changes to this Accord...

Rising international bank financing to developing countries has fueled a debate on the behavior of these claims. The authors analyze claims from seven home (lender) countries on ten host (borrower) countries in Latin America. They find that banks transmit shocks from their home countries and...