This paper investigates whether poor employment prospects of potential insurgents help to fuel conflict. The paper … benefits are unobserved. In contrast, many other shocks in the conflict literature are persistent and unanticipated, thus also … estimates of the effect of harvest shocks on conflict intensity in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan using subnational variation …

of the impact of conflict point to negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth of -12 percent on average over 2011 …-18, resulting in a GDP contraction to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers … stable resolution of the conflict is achieved …