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This paper analyzes the impact of Covid-19 and uncooperative trade policies on world food markets. It quantifies the … domestic food markets could magnify the initial shock. The analysis shows that, in the quarter following the outbreak of the … pandemic, the global export supply of food could decrease between 6 and 20 percent and global prices increase between 2 and 6 …
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"This paper relaxes some key assumptions in the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability. First, the authors identify structural breaks over the sample period used to estimate the covariance matrix of the shocks to the debt ratios. Second, the assumption of normality of the shocks is...
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