a rigorous, proven methodology; and (5) capable of forecasting future hotspots with enough accuracy to provide useful …, with infection dynamics captured by a Gompertz growth model. The model results for all three countries suggest that local … infection growth is affected by the scale of infections in relatively distant places. Forecasts of hotspots 14 and 28 days in …

initial shock due to the pandemic under the assumption that products that are more labor intensive in production are more … domestic food markets could magnify the initial shock. The analysis shows that, in the quarter following the outbreak of the … percent on average. Escalating export restrictions would multiply the initial shock by a factor of 3, with world food prices …