This paper analyses futures prices for four energy commodities (light sweet crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas) and five agricultural commodities (corn, oats, soybean oil, soybeans and wheat), over the period 1986-2010. Using CCC and DCC multivariate GARCH models, we find that...

This paper analyses futures prices for four energy commodities (light sweet crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas) and five agricultural commodities (corn, oats, soybean oil, soybeans and wheat), over the period 1986-2010. Using CCC and DCC multivariate GARCH models, we find that...

Based on two strands of theoretical research, this paper provides new evidence on how fares are jointly affected by in-flight seat availability and purchasing date. As capacity-driven theories predict, it emerges that fares monotonically and substantially increase with the flights occupancy...

We develop a stochastic general equilibrium model in which maintenance endogenously affects the capital depreciation rate. The model performs well in generating maintenance series that match closely existing survey-based measures for Canada. Maintenance is procyclical and comoves almost always...

In the light of the recent financial crisis, we investigate the effects generated by limited asset market participation on optimal monetary and fiscal policy, where monetary and fiscal authority are independent and play strategically. We find that limited asset market participation strongly...

Let (Xn) be a sequence of integrable real random variables, adapted to a filtration (Gn). Define: Cn = n^(1/2) {1/n SUM(k=1:n) Xk - E(Xn+1 | Gn) } and Dn = n^(1/2){ E(Xn+1 | Gn)-Z } where Z is the a.s. limit of E(Xn+1 | Gn) (assumed to exist). Conditions for (Cn,Dn) -- N(0,U) × N(0,V) stably...

An urn contains balls of d = 2 colors. At each time n = 1, a ball is drawn and then replaced together with a random number of balls of the same color. Let An =diag (An,1, . . . ,An,d) be the n-th reinforce matrix. Assuming EAn,j = EAn,1 for all n and j, a few CLT’s are available for such urns....

We propose a model characterized by strategic interactions among an endogenous number of producers and search and matching frictions in the labor market. In line with U.S. data: (i) new firms account for a relatively small share of overall employment, but they create a relevant fraction of new...

We develop a new class of prior distributions for Bayesian comparison of nested models, which we call intrinsic moment priors, by combining the well-established notion of intrinsic prior with the recently introduced idea of non-local priors, and in particular of moment priors. Specifically, we...