The motivation for this paper is to investigate the use of alternative novel neural network architectures when applied to the task of forecasting and trading the Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate. This is done by benchmarking three different neural network designs representing a Higher Order...

This article explores the relationships between several forecasts for the volatility built from multi-scale linear ARCH processes, and linear market models for the forward variance. This shows that the structures of the forecast equations are identical, but with different dependencies on the...

In this paper we examine the usefulness of multivariate semi-parametric GARCH models for evaluating the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a portfolio with arbitrary weights. We specify and estimate several alternative multivariate GARCH models for daily returns on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes. Examining...

The objective of this study is to analyse volatility transmission between the US and Eurozone stock markets considering the financial market responses to the September 11, March 11 and July 7 terrorist attacks. In order to do this, we use a multivariate GARCH model and take into account the...

We present a flexible class of hierarchical copulas capable of modelling multidimensional joint distributions of asset returns with a richer rank correlation structure than existing models. We derive estimators and simulation techniques. The methods are applied to an illustrative portfolio...

We present an enterprise design pattern for managing metadata in support of financial analytics packages. The complexity of financial modelling typically requires deployment of multiple financial analytics packages, drawing data from multiple source systems. Business domain experts are typically...

The practical use of the contamination technique in stress testing for risk measures Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) and for optimization problems with these risk criteria is discussed. Whereas for CVaR its application is straightforward, the presence of the simple...

We extend the theory of super-replicating a European option by relaxing its two main assumptions: we take into account the constraints on trading the option and allow it to be traded inter-temporally. The first extension has a dramatic effect on the price of a portfolio hedging the option, while...

In this work we propose Monte Carlo simulation models for dynamically computing MaxVaR for a financial return series. This dynamic MaxVaR takes into account the time-varying volatility as well as non-normality of returns or innovations. We apply this methodology to five stock market indices. To...

It is well-established that equity returns are not Normally distributed, but what should the portfolio manager do about this, and is it worth the effort? It is now feasible to employ better multivariate distribution families that capture heavy tails and skewness in the data; we argue that among...