This paper considers inference in log-linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with weakly (including un-) identified parameters. The framework allows for analysis using only part of the spectrum, say at the business cycle frequencies. First, we characterize weak...

This paper determines conditions for the existence of a unique rational expectations equilibrium-determinacy-in a monetary policy switching economy. We depart from the existing literature by providing such conditions considering all bounded equilibria. We then apply these conditions to a new...

This paper investigates whether assuming that households possess advance information on their income shocks helps to overcome the difficulty of standard models to understand consumption insurance in the US. As our main result, we find that the quantitative relevance of advance information...

In this paper, we build a new test of rational expectations based on the marginal distributions of realizations and subjective beliefs. This test is widely applicable, including in the common situation where realizations and beliefs are observed in two different data sets that cannot be matched....

We propose a novel approach to deal with the problem of indeterminacy in linear rational expectations models. The method consists of augmenting the original state space with a set of auxiliary exogenous equations to provide the adequate number of explosive roots in presence of indeterminacy. The...

Unlike linear ones, nonlinear business cycle models can generate sustained fluctuations even in the absence of shocks (e.g., via limit cycles/chaos). A popular approach to solving nonlinear models is perturbation methods. I show that, as typically implemented, these methods are incapable of...

We introduce Behavioral Learning Equilibria (BLE) into a multivariate linear framework and apply it to New Keynesian DSGE models. In a BLE, boundedly rational agents use simple, but optimal AR(1) forecasting rules whose parameters are consistent with the observed sample mean and autocorrelation...

Expectations affect economic decisions, and inaccurate expectations are costly. Expectations can be wrong due to either bias (systematic mistakes) or noise (unsystematic mistakes). We develop a framework for quantifying the level of noise in survey expectations. The method is based on the...

Morton and Wecker (1977) stated that the value iteration algorithm solves a dynamic program's policy function faster than its value function when the limiting Markov chain is ergodic. I show that their proof is incomplete, and provide a new proof of this classic result. I use this result to...