Prediction markets for future events are increasingly common and they often trade several contracts for the same event. This paper considers the distribution of a normative risk-neutral trader who, given any portfolio of contracts traded on the event, would choose not to reallocate that...

This paper develops a new method for estimating a demand function and the welfare consequences of price changes. The method is applied to gasoline demand in the United States and is applicable to other goods. The method uses shape restrictions derived from economic theory to improve the...