This paper discusses at an undergraduate level how forecast rationality can be tested. It explains that forecasters should correctly use any relevant information they knew in making their predictions. It shows that forecast rationality can be tested by determining whether the forecasters'...

Few studies have investigated how the large and persistent swings of the dollar over the past two decades have affected the profits of U.S. manufacturing firms. Using an econometric model of manufacturing profits, this article evaluates the overall impact of exchange rate changes on aggregate...