Based on recent evidence of fractional cointegration in commodity spot and futures markets, we investigate whether a fractionally cointegrated model can provide statistically and/or economically significant forecasts of commodity returns. Specifically, we propose to model and forecast commodity...

We provide an empirical framework for assessing the distributional properties of daily speculative returns within the context of the continuous-time jump diffusion models traditionally used in asset pricing finance. Our approach builds directly on recently developed realized variation measures...