Showing 1 - 10 of 24
realized volatility. The jump component has very different time series properties than the continuous component, and accounting … for this allows improved forecasting of future realized volatility. We investigate the potential forecasting role of … implied volatility backed out from option prices in the presence of these new separate realized volatility components. We show …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003795292
In the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) literature, deterministic terms have until now been analyzed on a case-by-case, or as-needed basis. We give a comprehensive uni ed treatment of deterministic terms in the additive model Xt = γZt + Yt, where Zt belongs to a large class of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011517008
We consider the fractional cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model of Johansen and Nielsen (2012a) and show that the test statistic for the ususal CVAR model is asymptotically chi-squared distributed. Because the usual CVAR model lies on the boundary of the parameter space for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011756080
We propose a statistical procedure to determine the dimension of the nonstationary subspace of cointegrated functional time series taking values in the Hilbert space of square-integrable functions defined on a compact interval. The procedure is based on sequential application of a proposed test...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012183480
We consider estimation of the cointegrating relation in the stationary fractional cointegration model. This model has … methodology. -- Fractional cointegration ; frequency domain ; fully modified estimation ; long memory ; semiparametric …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003742079
In this paper a nonparametric variance ratio testing approach is proposed for determining the cointegration rank in … data, the strength of the cointegrating relations, or the cointegration vector(s). The latter property makes it easier to … statistic without being reflected in the asymptotic distribution. Furthermore, a consistent estimator of the cointegration space …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003742085
regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegration. The model is motivated by the dynamics of electricity … suggested model is shown to deliver forecasts that are more precise compared to competing models. -- Cointegration ; electricity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003872445
We consider estimation of the cointegrating relation in the weak fractional cointegration model, where the strength of … fractional cointegration model, which has found important application recently, especially in financial economics. Previous …. -- Fractional cointegration ; frequency domain ; fully modified estimation ; long memory ; semiparametric …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003919719
test for cointegration rank, which is a functional of fractional Brownian motion of type II. -- Cofractional processes … ; cointegration rank ; fractional cointegration ; likelihood inferencw ; vector autoregressive model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003981839
We examine forecasting performance of the recent fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model. The model is applied to daily polling data of political support in the United Kingdom for 2010 - 2015. We compare with popular competing models and at various forecast horizons. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011279787