We solve for an S-shaped schedule for market size for a new product that undergoes gradual widespread adoption. We hypothesize that the speed of market expansion is positively related to the current profit per unit being produced. In a mature market the unit profit is relatively low.

The analysis of new product introduction using discrete-choice demand models has focused on successful products (e.g. the minivan) and their welfare impacts. Instead, we apply this approach to unsuccessful products to provide insight into the reasons for their failure. Our case study is the...