Historians have suggested there were waves of inflation or price revolutions in the UK (and earlier England) in the 13th, 16th, and 18th centuries, prior to the ongoing inflation since 1914. We study retail price inflation since 1251 and model its forecasts. The model is an AR(n) but allows for...

An SVAR in US federal spending, federal revenue, and GDP is a standard setting for the study of the impact of fiscal shocks. An appealing feature of identifying a fiscal shock with an external instrument is that one can find the effects of that shock without fully identifying the SVAR. But we...

The all-gap Phillips curve (PC) explains inflation by expected inflation and an activity variable such as output or the unemployment rate, but with both inflation and the activity variable measured relative to their stochastic trends and thus as gaps. We study this relationship with minimal...