Burlon, Lorenzo; Emiliozzi, Simone; Notarpietro, Alessandro - Banca d'Italia - 2015
The paper assesses the performance of medium-term forecasts of euro-area GDP and inflation obtained with a DSGE model and a BVARX model currently in use at the Bank of Italy. The performance is compared with that of simple univariate models and with the Eurosystem projections; the same real time...