Currency crises that coincide with banking crises tend to share four elements. First, governments provide guarantees to domestic and foreign bank creditors. Second, banks do not hedge their exchange rate risk. Third, there is a lending boom before the crises. Finally, when the currency/banking...

This paper argues that the recent Asian currency crisis was caused by large prospective deficits associated with implicit bail out guaranteed to guarantees to failing banking systems. We articulate this view using a simple dynamic general equilibrium model whose key feature is that a speculative...

This paper proposes a theory of twin banking-currency crisis in which both fundamentals and self-fulfilling beliefs play crucial roles. Fundamentals determine whether crises will occur. Self-fulfilling beliefs determine when they occur. The fundamental that causes 'twin crises' is government...

This paper addresses two questions: (i) how do governments actually pay for the fiscal costs associated with currency crises; and (ii) what are the implications of different fi­nancing methods for post-crisis rates of inflation and depreciation? We study these questions using a general...

This paper explores the implications of different strategies for financng the fiscal costs of twin crises for inflation and depreciation rates. We use a first-generation type model of speculative attacks which has four key features: (i) the crisis is triggered by prospective deficits; (ii) there...

Changes in the price of nontradable goods relative to tradable goods account for roughly 50 percent of the cyclical movements in real exchange rates

This paper studies the behavior of inflation after nine large post-1990 contractionary devaluations. A salient feature of the data is that inflation is low relative to the rate of devaluation. We argue that the distribution costs and substitution away from imports to lower quality local goods...

Large devaluations are generally associated with large declines in real exchange rates. Burstein, Eichenbaum, and Rebelo (2005) argue that the primary force causing these declines is often the slow adjustment in the price of nontradable goods and services. We develop a model which embodies two...

In this paper we argue that the primary force behind the large drop in real exchange rates that occurs after large devaluations is the slow adjustment in the price of nontradable goods and services. Our empirical analysis uses data from five large devaluation episodes: Argentina (2001), Brazil...