We obtain semiparametric efficiency bounds for estimation of a location parameter in a time series model where the innovations are stationary and ergodic conditionally symmetric marginale differences but otherwise prossess general depence and distributions of unknown from. We then describe an...

This paper proposes a theory of twin banking-currency crisis in which both fundamentals and self-fulfilling beliefs play crucial roles. Fundamentals determine whether crises will occur. Self-fulfilling beliefs determine when they occur. The fundamental that causes 'twin crises' is government...

This paper reports on the progress made by the literature about economic growth in answering the question "Why do Growth Rates Differ? " It reviews that we currently know about the mechanics of growth miracles and poverty traps, as well as the tentative policy advice that these mechanics suggest.

According to Pareto (1896), the distribution of income depends on ``the nature of the people comprising a society, on the organization of the latter, and, also, in part, on chance.'' In the model developed here the ``nature of the people'' is captured by attitudes toward marriage, divorce,...

The Real Business Cycle (RBC) research program has grown spectacularly over the last decade, as its concepts and methods have diffused into mainstream macroeconomics. Yet, there is increasing skepticism that technology shocks are a major source of business fluctuations. This chapter exposits the...