This paper presents estimates of an equilibrium-based dynamic adjustment model of the office market, using supply and demand relationships to link construction, absorption, vacancies and rents to employment growth and real interest rates. The model is estimated using data from the City of London...

Rental adjustment equations have been estimated for a quarter century. In the United States, models have used the deviation of the actual vacancy rate from the natural rate as the main explanatory variable, while in the United Kingdom, drivers of the demand for space have dominated the...

Recent analyses have suggested the irrationality of Australian and U.S. office property investors in that they have failed to raise capitalization rates sufficiently at rental cyclical peaks to account for the obvious mean reversion in real rents and thus have significantly overvalued...

A model is developed and utilized in this paper to value a life-of-loan interest-rate cap on an ARM that reprices monthly. The value of the cap is seen to depend importantly on both the slope of the term structure and the variance of the 1-month rate. However, the cap value is not sensitive to...

This paper computes how coupon rates on hypothetical default-free 1- 3- and 5-year adjustable rate mortgages with various caps and teaser rates issued during the 1970-76 period would have had to be set in order for the ARMs to have earned the market rate of return over a 7 1/2-year holding...

This paper makes two contributions. First, an internally consistent annual data set is constructed for the housing-units identity. For the 1961-85 period, data are computed for completions, mobile home placements, the change in households, the change in vacancies, and, residually, net other...

We analyze monthly returns on an equally weighted index of eighteen to twenty-three equity (real property) real estate investment trusts (REITs) that were traded on major stock exchanges over the 1973-87 period. We employ a multifactor Arbitrage Pricing Model using prespecified macroeconomic...

Spreads between yields on different mortgage instruments and comparable maturity portfolios of Treasury securities have been computed and compared with quoted yields over the 1974-82 period for three different mortgage instruments: GNMA pass-throughs, FHLMC participation certificates, and...

Forecasting changes in housing finance (instruments and institutions), housing demand (tenure, quantity, and real price), and housing production requires forecasting numerous exogenous factors-inflation, government policy, and demographic forces being the most obvious-and interpreting their...