This paper tests the hypothesis that the more fragile a banking system is, the more likely it is to experience problems when an unexpected shock hits. The empirical framework where this test is conducted is a reduced form model, where macroeconomic factors explain banks’ loan losses. The...

Sufficient solvency of a pension insurance company responsible for defined-benefit pensions guarantees that the pensions are paid regardless of turbulence in the financial market. In the Finnish occupational pension system TyEL, the required level of solvency capital (solvency limit) and its...

This paper examines inflation dynamics in Europe. Econometric specification tests with pooled European data are used to compare the empirical performance of the New Classical, New Keynesian and Hybrid specifications of the Phillips curve. Instead of imposing any specific form of expectations...

No consensus has emerged on how to deal with overnight returns when calculating realized volatility in markets where trading does not take place 24 hours a day. This paper explores several common volatility applications, investigating how the chosen treatment of overnight returns affects the...

In this paper, we propose a new noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model for non-Gaussian time series. The assumption of non-Gaussianity is needed for reasons of identifiability. Assuming that the error distribution belongs to a fairly general class of elliptical distributions, we develop an...

This paper examines the empirical performance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve and its hybrid specification in the euro area. Instead of imposing rational expectations, direct measures, ie OECD forecasts, are used as empirical proxies for economic agents´ inflation expectations. Real...

We compare parameter estimates of the intertemporal money-in-the-utility-function model estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments and the Full Information Maximum Likelihood method. The process driving the forcing variables is approximated with vector autoregression. The FIML estimates...

This paper derives the cointegration spaces that are implied by linear rational expectations models when data are I(1). The cointegration implications are easy to calculate and can be readily applied to test if the models are consistent with the long-run properties of the data. However, the...

We derive a theoretical model for the demand for money using the money-in-the-utility-function approach. The steady-state – utility function – parameters of the model of narrow money (M1) estimated with cointegration techniques are stable over the foreign exchange rate regime shift; whereas...

This paper examines euro area inflation dynamics by estimating open economy New Keynesian Phillips curves based on the assumption that all imports are intermediate goods. Instead of imposing rational expectations a priori, Consensus Economics survey data and OECD inflation forecasts are used to...