This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus Economics survey and so do not assume rational...

This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We analyse possible impacts of changing panel composition on short and long term point forecasts and forecast uncertainties using approach, which is based on a set of sub-panels...

This paper examines recent changes in the cyclicality of euro area inflation. We estimate time-varying parameters for the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve using three alternative proxies for the output gap. Our analysis, which is based on the state-space method with Kalman filtering...