This paper draws attention to the limitations of the standard unit root/cointegration approach to economic and financial modelling, and to some of the alternatives based on the idea of fractional integration, long memory models, and the random field regression approach to nonlinearity. Following...

In this paper we represent structural unemployment by relating observed unemployment to wage inflation. An estimated series for the non-accelerating wage rate of unemployment (NAWRU) shows that the unemployment gap between observed unemployment and the structural rate provides an intuitive...

This paper examines how banks respond to shocks to their equity. If banks react to equity shocks by more than proportionately adjusting liabilities, then this will tend to generate a positive correlation between asset growth and leverage growth. However, we show that in the presence of changes...

It is generally accepted that excessive exuberance or gloom in investor sentiment contributes to booms and crashes in share prices. However, views differ on the merits of active policy intervention due to gaps in our understanding of the transmission mechanism. To fill this gap we apply a fully...

We examine the relationship between monetary policy operations and interbank trading of funds using sovereign bonds as collateral. We first establish that, in the pre-crisis period, there are important but rather weak relations between these funding sources and that this relationship varies...

We examine whether the ECB’s Securities Markets Programme (SMP) was effective in reversing or stabilising adverse movements in Irish sovereign yields. Our initial analysis examines whether daily yield movements responded significantly to interventions. At the daily frequency we find no...

This paper performs a fully real-time nowcasting (forecasting) exercise of US real gross domestic product (GDP) growth using Giannone, Reichlin and Small (2008) factor model framework which enables one to handle unbalanced datasets as available in real-time. To this end, we have constructed a...

This paper assesses the ability of dierent models to forecast key real and nominal U.S. monthly macroeconomic variables in a data-rich environment from the perspective of a realtime forecaster, i.e. taking into account the real-time data revisions process and data ow. We nd that for the real...

This paper analyzes the stability over time of the econometric process for Euro-area inflation since 1970, focusing in particular on the behaviour of the so-called persistence parameter (the sum of the coefficients on the lagged dependent variables). Perhaps surprisingly, in light of the Lucas...

Using data from the period 1970-1991, Romer and Romer (2000) showed that Federal Reserve forecasts of inflation and output were superior to those provided by commercial forecasters. In this paper, we show that this superior forecasting performance deteriorated after 1991. Over the decade...