The rapid increase in credit in an economy is now commonly perceived to be one of the leading in- dicators of financial instability. This view has been reinforced by the aftermath of the international financial crisis, which commenced in mid-2007. A key policy response has been to focus on the...

This paper examines the role of credit and the macroeconomy in SME distress during a pro- longed economic downturn. Specically, we estimate the determinants of SME distress in Ireland during the severe financial and economic crisis which began in 2007/2008. We use a measure of dis- tress,...

Recently, some notable contributions suggest, that discretionary fiscal policy can be an effective and self- financing policy option in the presence of extreme macroeconomic conditions. Given the special relationship between the Irish sovereign and its main financial institutions, this paper...

Understanding the true scale of the difficulties in the Irish mortgage market is of key importance from a financial stability, fiscal and social perspective. To date, much of the analysis and discussion of the Irish market has tended to focus on either the concept of mortgage repayment distress...

This paper presents a model of the Irish housing sector which has been created to nest within the Irish block of the ESCB multi-country model which is maintained in the Economic Analysis Research and Publications Department. The model consists of a demand and supply side and results from it are...

This paper is a product of the ongoing re-estimation of the Irish macro model. This is part of the EMI Multicountry Model. The paper is concerned with the estimation of a system of equations, which seek to capture the salient features of the supply-side of the Irish economy. Expressions are...

In this paper, more advanced models of the Irish supply side are examined and applied. In particular, a specification of a flexible and dynamic model, which nests more traditional approaches, is adopted. The approach consists of a two-stage process. Firstly, a static translog cost function for...

This paper presents a framework for estimating losses for residential mortgage loans.At the core is a transitions-based probability of default model which yields directly observ- able cash-fl ows at the loan level. The estimated model includes coefficients on unemployment, Loan to Value ratio...

Using a uniquely constructed loan-level dataset of the residential mortgage book of Irish financial institutions, this paper provides a framework for estimating default probabilities of individual mort- gages. In contrast to the popular stock delinquency approach, this model provides estimates...

Using a uniquely constructed loan-level dataset of the residential mortgage book of Irish financial institutions, this paper provides a framework for estimating default probabilities of individual mortgages. In particular, the paper examines the progression of mortgages in arrears from 90 days...