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Most standard asset-pricing models assume that all shocks to consumption are permanent. We relax this assumption and allow also for non-permanent shocks. In our specification, the long-run mean of consumption growth is constant; consumption levels are subject to short-run deviations from their...
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standard New-Keynesian model, and may even inflate the equity premium. Second, asset-price movements improve the inflation …-output trade-off so that average output can rise without increasing much average inflation. Finally, a strict inflation …-targeting policy may result in lower average welfare than a more flexible inflation-targeting policy, which instead increases the …
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properties of the yield curve when inflation is an exogenous process and compare this to the yield curve when inflation is … endogenous and determined through an interest-rate/Taylor rule. When inflation is exogenous, it is difficult to match the shape … with exogenous inflation does not exhibit any negative autocorrelation - a necessary condition for an upward sloping yield …
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We show that the difference between the natural rate of interest and the current level of monetary policy stance, which we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises...
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