In the data mining and machine learning fields, forecasting the direction of price change can be generally formulated as a supervised classfii cation. This paper attempts to predict the direction of daily changes of the Nasdaq Composite Index (NCI) and of the Standard & Poor's 500 Composite...

In this paper, we examine the performance of three DeMark indicators (Sequential, Combo and Setup trend), which constitute specific implementations of technical analysis often used by practitioners, over twenty-one commodity futures markets and ten years of daily data. Our work addresses price...

Exploiting the near-experimental conditions provided by the British Pound market in US Dollars during the Brexit vote of June 23rd, 2016, we unearth a major challenge to the Efficient Market Hypothesis. With a single factor of prior polling information, we show that the Brexit result could have...

For portfolio choice problems with proportional transaction costs, we discuss whether or not there exists a shadow price, i.e., a least favorable frictionless market extension leading to the same optimal strategy and utility. By means of an explicit counter-example, we show that shadow prices...

Using a comprehensive sample of trades from Schedule 13D filings by activist investors, we study how measures of adverse selection respond to informed trading. We find that on days when activists accumulate shares, measures of adverse selection and of stock illiquidity are lower, even though...

I introduce dynamic option trading and non-linear views into the classical portfolio selection problem. The optimal dynamic option portfolio is characterized explicitly in terms of its expected sensitivities (Greeks) and the role of the mean-variance effi cient portfolio is played by the "Greek...

We consider a market consisting of one safe and one risky asset, which offer constant investment opportunities. Taking into account both proportional transaction costs and linear price impact, we derive optimal rebalancing policies for representative investors with constant relative risk...

We solve the problem of optimal inventory management for a CARA market-maker who faces proportional transaction costs and marking to market. Our model accommodates inventory shocks following an arbitrary compound Poisson process, and allows us to link the optimal policy to the moment-generating...

We study optimal investment with multiple assets in the presence of small proportional transaction costs. Rather than computing an asymptotically optimal no-trade region, we optimize over suitable trading frequencies. We derive explicit formulas for these and the associated welfare losses due to...