We develop the concept of “dragon-kings” corresponding to meaningful outliers, which are found to coexist with power laws in the distributions of event sizes under a broad range of conditions in a large variety of systems. These dragon-kings reveal the existence of mechanisms of...

We construct risk-neutral return probability distributions from S&P 500 options data over the decade 2003 to 2013, separable into pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis regimes. The pre-crisis period is characterized by increasing realized and, especially, option-implied returns. This translates...

Extensions of expected utility theory are sensitive to the tail behavior of the portfolio return distribution and may not be approximated reliably through higher-order moment expansions. We develop a novel approach for model risk assessment based on a projection method and apply it to portfolio...

This paper develops an optimal trading strategy explicitly linked to an agent's preferences and assessment of the distribution of asset returns. The price of this strategy is a portfolio of implied moments, and its expected excess returns naturally accommodate compensation for higher-order...

We investigate how sell-side analysts adjust their earnings forecasts following ESG incidents. We find that following negative ESG news, analysts significantly downgrade their earnings forecasts at all horizons, including long-term. Forecast revisions account for all the negative impact of ESG...

We examine the effects of mandatory ESG disclosure around the world using a novel dataset. Mandatory ESG disclosure increases the availability and quality of ESG reporting, especially among firms with low ESG performance. Mandatory ESG reporting has in turn beneficial effects on firm’s...

Lending relationships matter for firm financing. In a model of debt dynamics, we study how lending relationships are formed and how they impact leverage and debt maturity choices. In the model, lending relationships evolve through repeated interactions between firms and debt investors. Stronger...

We study the effects of diversifying funding sources on the financing conditions for firms. We exploit a regulatory reform that took place in Italy in 2012, i.e. the introduction of ‘minibonds’, which opened a new market-based funding opportunity for unlisted firms. Using the Italian Credit...

Within the context of expected utility and in a discrete loss setting, we provide a complete account of the demand for insurance by strictly-risk averse agents and risk-neutral firms when they enjoy limited liability. When exposed to a bankrupting, binary loss and under actuarially fair prices,...