measure house price bubbles. We use an asset pricing approach to identify bubble periods retrospectively and then compare … ability to identify bubbles as they form. In view of the complexity of the asset pricing approach, we conclude that a simple …

We propose an extension of the class of rational expectations bubbles (REBs) to the more general rational beliefs … beliefs can thus account for speculative bubbles, without the need for irrational agents or limits to arbitrage. Many of the … shortcomings of REBs that make rational bubbles implausible can be overcome once we relax the ergodicity requirement. In particular …

price dynamics with recurring bubbles in all treatments …

The aim of this paper is to present novel tests for the early causal diagnostic of positive and negative bubbles in the … LPPLS (log-periodic power law singularity) approach successfully diagnoses positive and negative bubbles, constructs … efficient End-of-Bubble signals for all of the well-documented bubbles, and obtains for the first time new statistical evidence …

and that started to burst in June 2015. The analysis is based on (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles …

Galvanized by the claims of Greenwood et al. in Bubbles for Fama that “a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio …, people have not come up with ways of identifying bubbles”, we present significant evidence to the contrary of both statements … price growth qualified by LPPLS: (i) bubbles followed by a large drawdown or crash, and (ii) price catch-up followed by a …