We analyze portfolio credit risk in light of dynamic quot;frailty,quot; by which the credit qualities of different firms depend on common unobservable time-varying default covariates. Frailty is estimated to have a large impact on estimated conditional mean default rates, above and beyond those...

We estimate a general microstructure model of the transitory and permanent impact of order flow on stock prices. Jumps are detected in both the transaction price (observation equation) and fundamental value (state equation). The model's parameters and variances are updated in real time. Prices...

We introduce a new class of momentum strategies, the risk-adjusted time series momentum (RAMOM) strategies, which are based on averages of past futures returns, normalized by their volatility. We test these strategies on a universe of 64 liquid futures contracts and show that RAMOM strategies...

We develop a dynamic tradeoff model to examine the importance of manager-shareholder conflicts in capital structure choice. Using panel data on leverage choices and the model's predictions for different statistical moments of leverage, we show that while refinancing costs help explain the...

This paper deals with efficient estimation in exchangeable nonlinear dynamic panel models with common unobservable factor. The specification accounts for both micro- and macro-dynamics, induced by the lagged individual observation and the common stochastic factor, respectively. For large...

We present a new theory of asset pricing and portfolio choices under asymmetric reasoning, contrast the predictions with those under asymmetric information, and present experimental evidence in favor of our theory. The Efficient Markets Hypothesis and its formal foundation, the Rational...

In this paper, we consider block trading strategies and characterize the times when a block trade is a popular choice. We also study the economic relevance of optimal liquidation strategies by calibrating a recent and realistic microstructure model with data from the Paris Stock Exchange. We...

This paper shows that the framework proposed by Barberis and Huang (2009) to incorporate narrow framing and loss aversion into dynamic models of portfolio choice and asset pricing can be extended to also account for probability weighting and for a value function that is convex on losses and...

We derive representations for the stock price drift and volatility in the equilibrium of agents with arbitrary, heterogeneous utility functions and with the aggregate dividend following an arbitrary Markov diffusion. We introduce a new, intrinsic characteristic of the aggregate dividend process...

We study the existence of equilibria with endogenously complete markets in a continuous-time, heterogenous agents economy driven by a multidimensional diffusion process. Our main results show that if prices are real analytic as functions of time and the state variables of the model then a...