This paper documents that underpriced firms substitute R&D spending with share buybacks to the detriment of innovation. To identify underpriced firms, I introduce a novel measure of non-fundamental price pressure induced by indirect exposure to industry-level shocks. This measure addresses...

I show that an asset pricing model for the equity claims of a value-maximizing firm can be constructed from its optimal financial contracting behavior. I study a dynamic contracting model in which firms trade off the costs and benefits of a given promise to pay external lenders in a specific...

The aim of this paper is to investigate long-term portfolio management in a fully structural macro- financial framework. First, we estimate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that describes the dynamic of the US economy and financial markets. In addition to the typical...

We investigate the feedback effect of option hedging activity on the stability of the price of the underlying. While previous literature has focused on the effect of hedging activity on the volatility of the underlying, this paper focuses on directional instabilities arising from feedback...

We develop a penalized two-pass regression with time-varying factor loadings. The penalization in the first pass enforces sparsity for the time-variation drivers while also maintaining compatibility with the no arbitrage restrictions by regularizing appropriate groups of coefficients. The second...

We show how distributions can be reduced to low-dimensional scenario trees. Applied to intertemporal distributions, the scenarios and their probabilities become time-varying factors. From S&P 500 options, two or three time-varying scenarios suffice to forecast returns, implied variance or...

Based on the insight that risk exposure as quantified in the consumption based asset pricing model (CCAPM) is linearly proportional to the cash flow growth rate, we introduce a discounted cash flow model with a time-varying expected return structure matching the implicitly assumed risk exposure...

This study investigates reference-dependent choice with a stochastic, state-dependent reference point. The optimal reference-dependent solution equals the optimal consumption solution (no loss aversion) if the reference point is selected fully endogenously. Given that loss aversion is...

Realized divergence gauges the distinct realized moments associated with time-varying uncertainty and is tradeable with divergence swaps engineered from delta-hedged option portfolios. Consistently with established notions of symmetry in arbitrage-free option markets, implied divergence...

Ambiguity aversion in dynamic models is motivated by the presence of unknown time-varying features, which agents do not understand and cannot theorize about. We analyze the consequences of this assumption for economic agents and model builders, who typically need to estimate a model, e.g., to...