We propose to date and analyze the financial cycle using the Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT). Our presentation points out limitations of the methods derived from the classical business cycle literature, while stressing their connection with wavelet analysis. The fundamental...

We argue that the present crisis and stalling economy continuing since 2007 have clear origins, namely in the delusionary belief in the merits of policies based on a “perpetual money machine” type of thinking. Indeed, we document strong evidence that, since the early 1980s, consumption has...

We develop a dynamic tradeoff model to examine the importance of manager-shareholder conflicts in capital structure choice. Using panel data on leverage choices and the model's predictions for different statistical moments of leverage, we show that while refinancing costs help explain the...

This paper deals with efficient estimation in exchangeable nonlinear dynamic panel models with common unobservable factor. The specification accounts for both micro- and macro-dynamics, induced by the lagged individual observation and the common stochastic factor, respectively. For large...

We present a new theory of asset pricing and portfolio choices under asymmetric reasoning, contrast the predictions with those under asymmetric information, and present experimental evidence in favor of our theory. The Efficient Markets Hypothesis and its formal foundation, the Rational...

In this paper, we consider block trading strategies and characterize the times when a block trade is a popular choice. We also study the economic relevance of optimal liquidation strategies by calibrating a recent and realistic microstructure model with data from the Paris Stock Exchange. We...

This paper shows that the framework proposed by Barberis and Huang (2009) to incorporate narrow framing and loss aversion into dynamic models of portfolio choice and asset pricing can be extended to also account for probability weighting and for a value function that is convex on losses and...

We derive representations for the stock price drift and volatility in the equilibrium of agents with arbitrary, heterogeneous utility functions and with the aggregate dividend following an arbitrary Markov diffusion. We introduce a new, intrinsic characteristic of the aggregate dividend process...

We study the existence of equilibria with endogenously complete markets in a continuous-time, heterogenous agents economy driven by a multidimensional diffusion process. Our main results show that if prices are real analytic as functions of time and the state variables of the model then a...

Using quarterly data over 1973:4-2008:2, two-variable systems of house prices and income are specified for three major house-owning economies: New Zealand (N.Z.), the U.K. and the U.S. After considering differences in price−income relationships over sub-periods, the analysis compares responses...