The Case-Shiller is the reference repeat-sales index for the U.S. residential real estate market, yet it is released with a two-month delay. We find that incorporating recent information from 71 financial and macro predictors improves backcasts, now-casts, and short-term forecasts of the index...

Structured additive regression (STAR) models are a rich class of regression models that include the generalized linear model (GLM) and the generalized additive model (GAM). STAR models can be fitted by Bayesian approaches, component-wise gradient boosting, penalized least-squares, and deep...

I propose a new tool to characterize the resolution of uncertainty around FOMC press conferences. It relies on the construction of a measure capturing the level of discussion complexity between the Fed Chair and reporters during the Q&A sessions. I show that complex discussions are associated...

We introduce a novel quantitative methodology to detect real estate bubbles and forecast their critical end time, which we apply to the housing markets of China's major cities. Building on the Log-Periodic Power Law Singular (LPPLS) model of self-reinforcing feedback loops, we use the quantile...

This study investigates how three regulatory reforms undertaken in the aftermath of the global financial crisis have affected returns of real estate companies. The three reforms are aimed at regulating different segments of the market – Basel III targets banks, and could restrict the...

Performance of investment managers are evaluated in comparison with benchmarks, such as financial indices. Due to the operational constraint that most professional databases do not track the change of constitution of benchmark portfolios, standard tests of performance suffer from the look-ahead...

Much of the trading activity in Equity markets is directed to brokerage houses. In exchange they provide so-called quot;soft dollarsquot; which basically are amounts spent in quot;researchquot; for identifying profitable trading opportunities. Soft dollars represent about USD 1 out of every USD...

We present a hybrid model for diagnosis and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles. The model combines two elements: 1) the Log Periodic Power Law (LPPL) model to describe endogenous price dynamics originated from positive feedback loops between economic agents; and 2) a diffusion...

We propose a novel methodology that jointly estimates the proportions of skilled/unskilled funds and the cross-sectional distribution of skill in the mutual fund industry. We model this distribution as a three-component mixture of a point mass at zero and two components — one negative, one...

We build a simple diagnostic criterion for approximate factor structure in large panel datasets. Given observable factors, the criterion checks whether the errors are weakly cross-sectionally correlated or share at least one unobservable common factor (interactive effects). A general version...