measure house price bubbles. We use an asset pricing approach to identify bubble periods retrospectively and then compare … because a reliable signal that a bubble is forming could be used to avoid further house price increases …

bubble if *S and S deviate from each other. None of these concepts needs any mention of martingales. Our main result then … shows that under a weak absence-of-arbitrage assumption (basically NUPBR), a market has a strong bubble if and only if in … under all possible ELMMs. We show by an example that our bubble concept lies strictly between the existing notions from the …