The authors use structural vector autoregressions to analyze the responses of worker flows, job flows, vacancies, and hours to demand and supply shocks. They identify these shocks by restricting the short-run responses of output and the price level. On the demand side, they disentangle a...

The authors survey the recent empirical literature using long-run restrictions to identify technology shocks and provide an illustrative walk-through of the long-run restricted vector autoregression (VAR) methodology in a bivariate framework. Additionally, they offer an alternative...

Inventories are widely believed to serve as a buffer stock against unexpected fluctuations in demand, allowing firms to plan production more efficiently. If so, we would expect production to vary less than sales and inventory to move in the opposite direction to sales. However, research finds...

Business recessions are notoriously hard to predict accurately, hence the quip that economists have predicted eight of the last five recessions. This article derives a six-month-ahead recession signal that reduces the number of false signals outside of recession, without impairing the ability to...

This paper revisits a property embedded in most dynamic macroeconomic models: the stationarity of hours worked. First, the author argues that, contrary to what is often believed, there are many reasons why hours could be nonstationary in those models, while preserving the property of balanced...

This paper uses a Markov-switching model with structural breaks to characterize and compare regional business cycles in Japan for the period 1976-2005. An early-1990s structural break meant a reduction in national and regional growth rates in expansion and recession, usually resulting in an...