This article was originally presented as a speech at the Association for University Business and Economic Research (AUBER) Annual Meeting, University of Memphis, Memphis, Tennessee, October 16, 2006.

“Expectations” is the Twenty-Second Henry Thornton Lecture, given by the author at the Department of Banking and Finance, City University Business School, London, England, on November 28, 2000.

Expectations of the future play a large role in macroeconomics. The rational expectations assumption, which is commonly used in the literature, provides an important benchmark, but may be too strong for some applications. This paper reviews some recent research that has emphasized methods for...

In this paper, James Bullard reviews the recent evidence on the long-run neutrality and superneutrality of money. Bullard restricts his attention primarily to several papers assessing the time-series evidence using techniques due to Fisher and Seater (1993) and King and Watson (1997).

The authors use a threshold autoregressive model to confirm the presence of nonlinearities in sectoral real exchange rate dynamics across Mexico, Canada, and the United States for the periods before and after the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Although trade liberalization is...