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The 2001 recession: how was it different and what developments may have caused it?

Kliesen, Kevin L. - In: Review (2003) Sep, pp. 23-38

The 2001 recession was unique in several respects. For instance, the peak-to-trough decline in real gross domestic product was one of the smallest on record and its duration was slightly shorter than average. This article examines some of the other unique features of the 2001 recession compared...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005519750

Regime-dependent recession forecasts and the 2001 recession

Dueker, Michael J. - In: Review (2002) Nov, pp. 29-36

Business recessions are notoriously hard to predict accurately, hence the quip that economists have predicted eight of … the last five recessions. This article derives a six-month-ahead recession signal that reduces the number of false signals … outside of recession, without impairing the ability to signal the recessions that occur. In terms of predicting the 1990 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005414814

Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?

Owyang, Michael T.; Sekhposyan, Tatevik - In: Review (2012) Sep, pp. 399-418

In 1962, Arthur Okun posited an empirical relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and real output growth. Since then, the media, policymakers, pundits, and intermediate macro students have used the so-called Okun’s law as a rule of thumb to relate changes in unemployment to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010733934