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Inflation, recession - what's a policymaker to do?
Francis, Darryl R. - In: Review (1974) Nov, pp. 3-7
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005415233
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Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature
Wheelock, David C.; Wohar, Mark E. - In: Review (2009) Sep, pp. 419-440
regression techniques to forecast changes in output or dichotomous choice models to forecast recessions. Others use time … nonlinearities. Many studies find that the term spread predicts output growth and recessions up to one year in advance, but several … recessions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005078415
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Banking industry consolidation and market structure: impact of the financial crisis and recession
Wheelock, David C. - In: Review (2011) Nov, pp. 419-438
The number of U.S. commercial banks and savings institutions declined by 12 percent between December 31, 2006, and December 31, 2010, continuing a consolidation trend begun in the mid-1980s. Banking industry consolidation has been marked by sharply higher shares of deposits held by the largest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009364688
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The effects of recessions across demographic groups
Engemann, Kristie M.; Wall, Howard J. - In: Review (2010) Jan, pp. 1-26
half times that for white workers. To provide a more complete understanding of the effect of recessions, this paper … examines the different effects of this and previous recessions across a range of demographic categories: sex, marital status …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008636071
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Bank financing of the recovery
Gilbert, R. Alton - In: Review (1976) Jul, pp. 2-9
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005414799
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Strengthening the case for the yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions
Dueker, Michael - In: Review (1997) Mar, pp. 41-51
variables such as the index of leading indicators, the yield curve is an excellent predictor of recessions. In this article …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005414806
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Regime-dependent recession forecasts and the 2001 recession
Dueker, Michael J. - In: Review (2002) Nov, pp. 29-36
Business recessions are notoriously hard to predict accurately, hence the quip that economists have predicted eight of … the last five recessions. This article derives a six-month-ahead recession signal that reduces the number of false signals … outside of recession, without impairing the ability to signal the recessions that occur. In terms of predicting the 1990 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005414814
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Forecasting recessions: can we do better on MARS?
Sephton, Peter - In: Review (2001) Mar, pp. 39-49
A number of recent articles have examined the ability of financial variables to predict recessions. In this article …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005415024
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Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?
Owyang, Michael T.; Sekhposyan, Tatevik - In: Review (2012) Sep, pp. 399-418
In 1962, Arthur Okun posited an empirical relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and real output growth. Since then, the media, policymakers, pundits, and intermediate macro students have used the so-called Okun’s law as a rule of thumb to relate changes in unemployment to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010733934
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Quantitative easing: entrance and exit strategies
Blinder, Alan S. - In: Review (2010) Nov, pp. 465-480
This article was originally presented as the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture, organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri, April 1, 2010.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008691071