We develop a model in which limit order traders possess volatility information. We show that in this case the size of the bid-ask spread is informative about future volatility. Moreover, if volatility information is in part private, we establish that (i) the size of the bid-ask spread and (ii)...

This article investigates the out-of-sample predictability of bond excess returns. We assess the economic value of the forecasting ability of empirical models based on long-term forward interest rates in a dynamic asset allocation strategy. The results show that the information content of...

This article investigates the out-of-sample predictability of bond excess returns. We assess the economic value of the forecasting ability of empirical models based on long-term forward interest rates in a dynamic asset allocation strategy. The results show that the information content of...